Martine Bulard

Rédactrice en chef adjointe au « Monde diplomatique »

  • Un Vietnamien à Washington
    Vietnam Communist Party chief to make first US visit as former foes mull China’s territorial claims | South China Morning Post
    http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1832465/vietnam-communist-party-chief-make-first-us-visit-former-foes-mull-chinas
    http://cdn3.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/620x356/public/2015/07/04/vietnam_us_party_chiefs_visit_han101_51191261.jpg?itok=9P2nRQIm

    The powerful head of Vietnam’s Communist Party will travel to the United States for the first time next week, and said he expects President Barack Obama will visit Vietnam later this year.

    Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong said Friday he hopes to build trust and create more opportunities to improve relations between the one-time foes as they mark the 20th anniversary of normalised diplomatic ties. They are also being brought closer together by shared concerns over China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.

    The White House said Trong would arrive on Tuesday, and the leaders would discuss trade, human rights and defence cooperation. It did not confirm a visit by Obama to Vietnam, which would be his first.

    Obama is expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in the neighbouring Philippines in November.

    Trong, 71, hosted a small group of Western journalists on Friday, and his staff provided his written answers to questions posed in advance.

    “Like in any relations between two countries in the world, Vietnam and the US have differences on a number of issues such as perception on democracy, human rights and trade,” Trong wrote in his reply to questions from The Associated Press.

    “To resolve differences, I believe the most effective way would be open and constructive dialogues to better understand each other so that differences won’t become hurdles to the overall bilateral relations,” he wrote.

    #Vietnam #Etats-UNis


  • Chinese overseas investment hindered by lack of experience, political opposition in host countries - Global Times
    http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/942349.shtml

    Chinese companies are boosting their overseas investment and contracts as China’s domestic economy slows down. However, a large portion of China’s current investment abroad have failed to meet expectations, as they are either stalled, over schedule or suffering financial losses. Experts say a lack of experience abroad and political opposition in some countries and industries are the key causes.

    In 1985, Hu Yaobang, then general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, was invited by then Australian prime minister Bob Hawke to visit Pilbara in West Australia, one of the biggest iron ore mines in the world.

    Hawke could later clearly remember picking up a piece of red iron ore and giving it to Hu, who quietly put the ore into his pocket.

    Two years later, the China Metallurgical Import and Export Company purchased a 40 percent stake in Channar, a company under British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto, marking modern China’s first major overseas investment project.

    More than 20 years have passed since then, and the global investment scene has changed significantly.

    Last year, China overtook the US for the first time as Australia’s biggest source of approved foreign investment, with Chinese investors planning to spend $27.7 billion there, according to Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board’s annual report. In the meantime, Australia has also become the second largest recipient of Chinese investment.

    However, Chinese companies have also faced a high volume of “troubled transactions” in the country, leading to up to $46.8 billion in investments that have been unsuccessful for non-market reasons since 2005. Some estimate that over one-third of all China’s foreign investments have been unsuccessful, and another one-third have just broken even. The high percentage of troubled investment overseas shows China still has many lessons to learn to be a successful global investor.
    #Chine #IDE

    Growing investment

    The economic slowdown in China is expected to spur a new momentum for Chinese companies to look abroad. On the first half of 2015, 30 countries have already signed contracts that are worth $100 million or more with Chinese firms, according to the China Global Investment Tracker. 

    Since 2005, the combined value of Chinese investments and construction transactions around the world stands at $1.1 trillion.

    Chinese companies are expected to increase their foreign investment. So far, China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) amounts for only 7 percent of its GDP. In comparison, the number is 38 percent in the US, 20 percent in Japan and 47 percent in Germany. In the next five years, China’s direct investment abroad is expected to grow at 10 percent each year. US-based institute Asia Society estimates that by 2020, China’s direct investment overseas will exceed $2 trillion.


  • China building third airstrip on disputed South China Sea islets: expert | Reuters
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/14/us-china-southchinasea-airstrips-idUSKCN0RE28220150914
    http://s2.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20150914&t=2&i=1079379604&w=&fh=545px&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=LYN

    China appears to be building a third airstrip in contested territory in the South China Sea, a U.S. expert said on Monday, citing satellite photographs taken last week.

    The photographs taken for Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank on Sept. 8 show construction on Mischief Reef, one of several artificial islands China has created in the Spratly archipelago.

    The images show a rectangular area with a retaining wall, 3,000 meters (3,280 yards) long, matching similar work by China on two other reefs, Subi and Fiery Cross, said Greg Poling, director of CSIS’s Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI).

    “Clearly, what we have seen is going to be a 3,000-meter airstrip and we have seen some more work on what is clearly going to be some port facilities for ships,” he said.

    Security experts say the strip would be long enough to accommodate most Chinese military aircraft, giving Beijing greater reach into the heart of maritime Southeast Asia, where it has competing claims with several countries.

    #Chine, #Mer_de_Chine


  • Chine, réforme des entreprises publiques version libéralisme
    China plans shake-up of state-owned enterprises to boost growth - FT.com
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/aff90924-5a01-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2.html?ftcamp=crm/email/2015914/nbe/ChinaBusiness/product#axzz3lgz39xUk
    http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/c8151c87-ffaa-48fd-8c43-87e9400c65a7.img

    “The guidelines suggest that by 2020, the goals in all the main reform areas should be accomplished, constituting a system that is more suitable to the nation’s socialist-market economy,” said Xinhua. “The SOE system should be more modernised and market-oriented. It should make for higher economic vitality, higher control, greater influence and SOEs will be more risk-resistant.”
    China has more than 155,000 SOEs, employing tens of millions of people in all sectors from banks to hotels and airlines to oil refiners. But while the vast majority are managed by local governments, there is a core of more than 100 large nationally strategic groups, including ICBC, the world’s biggest bank by assets, and China Mobile, the world’s biggest network by subscribers, controlled by Beijing.
    The update from the State Council came as manufacturing and investment statistics revealed further weakening in the world’s biggest economy by purchasing power parity.


  • South Korea’s generation of discontent | East Asia Forum
    http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2015/09/11/south-koreas-generation-of-discontent
    http://www.eastasiaforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/20150904001173378784-minihighres-400x226.jpg

    In South Korea 410,000 young people in their 20s are looking for work and unemployed. This is up from 330,000 in 2013 and is a 15-year high. But this deepening societal crisis should come as little surprise.

    #Corée_du_sud, #Jeunes


  • China’s grain prices under pressure from fall harvest, imports | CER
    http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/node/67769

    China’s grain prices under pressure from fall harvest, imports
    Thursday, September 10, 2015
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    Grain prices are experiencing strong downward pressure as China’s fall harvest arrives, Dim Sums reported, citing local media. Early-harvested spring corn from Shaanxi and Xinjiang is selling for less than RMB2,000 (US$313.31) per metric ton, with Chinese futures prices for January corn trading well below RMB1,950. But one calculation by an industry publication estimated the cost of US corn arriving in China at RMB1,593, down RMB119 from a year ago. China’s wheat market is also under pressure, with even the price for relatively scarce high-quality wheat falling due to weak demand. For more on China’s grain support price policies, see CER’s in-depth report.

    #CHine #Agriculture


  • Foreign Investors and China’s Naval Buildup | The Diplomat
    http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/foreign-investors-and-chinas-naval-buildup
    http://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/thediplomat_2015-09-09_07-11-19-553x360.jpg

    ❝China’s military shipbuilders – now the world’s most prolific builders of large surface combatants and submarines – are leading a push to access local and global capital markets that other Chinese defense enterprises will likely emulate.

    Between January 2004 and January 2015, the publicly listed arm of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, CSIC Limited and that of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, CSSC Holdings, raised a combined total of $22.26 billion from selling stock and bonds. This is approximately 20 percent more than the combined total that Huntington Ingalls, General Dynamics, and Lockheed Martin – three of the world’s largest and most sophisticated defense contractors – raised from the capital markets during that same timeframe.

    Every dollar or RMB raised on the market and ploughed into upgraded yard infrastructure, staff, and warship equipment frees up military budget funds for other uses. Consider that each Type 054A frigate delivered to the PLAN likely costs approximately $360-375 million. Each billion dollars raised on the market thus can effectively fund naval hardware activity equivalent to the delivered cost of nearly three Type 054As—a substantial impact by any measure.

    Quantifying the Activity

    This analysis features the highlights of a paper my co-author Eric Anderson and I presented at the “China’s Naval Shipbuilding: Progress and Challenges,” conference held by the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College on 19-20 May 2015.

    We created a unique proprietary dataset showing the number, type, and volume of capital markets transactions CSSC and CSIC executed between January 2004 and January 2015. These include both debt sales and equity issuances, and typically involved the companies’ respective listed arms: CSSC Holdings, Ltd. (SHA:600150) and CSIC Limited (SHA:601989.). Between January 2004 and January 2015, we count 31 transactions by the companies, for a combined total capital raised of $22.26 billion. Twelve transactions were by CSIC Limited, and nineteen by CSSC Holdings. Despite the initial public offerings of stock by CSSC in 2007 and CSIC in 2009, overall the companies have thus far issued much more debt than equity. To date, CSSC Holdings has raised a total of $8.63 billion from the debt markets and $3.02 billion from equity sales, while CSIC Ltd. has raised $7.04 billion from debt issuances and $3.57 billion from equity sales.

    #Chine #Navale


  • China backs Putin’s idea of developing Russia’s Far East, says it dovetails with ’north-east rebirth’ strategy | South China Morning Post
    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1855525/china-backs-putins-idea-developing-russias-run-down-far
    http://cdn1.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/620x356/public/2015/09/05/russia-economy-forum-putin_yk2800_52389287.jpg?itok=Pql7gl7g

    Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang said on Saturday that Russia’s push to revamp its run-down Far East region coincided with Beijing’s strategy, backing President Vladimir Putin’s drive for new sources of growth.

    At the Eastern Economic Forum in the Pacific Port of Vladivostok on Friday, Putin promised favourable business conditions and state support to Asian and domestic investors willing to come to Russia’s most remote land.

    “The Far East development strategy coincides with China’s strategy of north-east rebirth,” Wang said. “(The) Russia-Chinese partnership will definitely bring generous fruits.”

    But for Putin’s campaign to attract Asian funds to Russia, timing may be his worst enemy: the slowdown in the Chinese economy poses risks.

    Putin’s turn to Asia comes at a time when relations with the West have hit their lowest since the Cold War, following Moscow’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

    #Chine #Russie


  • The radical plan to turn China’s People’s Liberation Army into a modern fighting force | South China Morning Post
    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1854534/radical-plan-turn-chinas-peoples-liberation-army
    http://cdn1.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/620x356/public/2015/09/01/0af5bde0ade39a78f79b5956c46f8b8e.jpg?itok=3mUeJWBo

    As infantrymen polish their buckles and honour guards practice their marches one final time, the stage is set for Thursday’s parade in Beijing to mark the end of the second world war.

    Global leaders can expect a display of awe-inspiring power from the world’s largest army, which will be represented by 12,000 Chinese troops in 50 formations, nearly 200 aircraft, seven types of missiles and a dazzling array of hardware never before shown publicly.

    Yet with all eyes on the pomp in Tiananmen Square, behind the scenes, China’s military is in flux. Several plans for reform have been suggested, but one obtained by the South China Morning Post from reform-minded officers envisages the most radical restructuring of the forces ever. The plans, aimed at turning the People’s Liberation Army into a modern fighting force fit for battle and capable of projecting power overseas, envisage overhauling outdated command structures, unifying the army, navy and air force along Western lines, and further consolidating the army’s military command regions, now seven, down to four.

    Such an overhaul is unlikely to be welcomed by all, given that it would involve cutting PLA and armed police personnel from 3 million to 2 million, promoting the role of the navy and air force at the expense of the army, and dispensing with command structures many officers have spent their lives climbing.

    Yet keen observers say the commemorations, with their likely boost to morale and patriotism, give President Xi Jinping – who has already culled many of the corrupt military “tigers” standing in the way of reform – a springboard for change.

    New command
    The PLA’s nerve centre, the so-called four headquarters (General Staff, General Political Department, General Logistics Department and General Armaments Department) would be dissolved, with only the General Staff remaining. Functions of the other three departments would merge into the General Staff and Ministry of National Defence.

    In their place would be four new headquarters for the army, navy, air force and a newly created national guard, which would in turn come under the joint command of the Central Military Commission.

    The army, currently split into seven military command areas, would be split into just four zones: Northeast, Northwest, Southeast and Southwest.

    The national guard would replace the armed police, taking care of domestic security, disaster relief and anti-terrorism.

    #Chine, #armée


  • The Surprising Synergies of China and American Agriculture
    http://english.caixin.com/2015-09-01/100845749.html

    It’s well-known China has the demand and the United States has the land, but less established is that the groundwork for cooperation has already been formed

    By Jerry Nickelsburg
    Upton Sinclair’s 1905 exposé on food safety in the United States, The Jungle, was instrumental in pressuring Congress to pass the Pure Food and Drug Act of 1906. Today Americans have come to expect the food processing and distribution system to deliver safe and sanitary food to their markets. In 2015, China finds itself in a similar position to early 20th century America, with its households having doubts about the quality and safety of the food they purchase. Wu Heng, perhaps China’s Sinclair, has documented 3,449 instances of tainted food since 2004 on his website “Throw It Out The Window.” That the Communist Party considers a safe agricultural system a high priority is illustrated by Xi Jinping’s statement, “Whether we can provide a satisfying solution on food safety to the people is an important test of our governance capacity.” Over the long term China, as with the United States, will be able to make significant inroads on this issue. However, such reforms take both time and resources. Heng, in an interview with the New York Times, suggested an intermediate step for Chinese consumers might well be a tilt towards the purchase of foreign-produced foods.
    At this year’s Wilbur K. Woo Greater China Business Conference, I hosted a panel of experts on the segment of the Chinese food chain that originates in the United States. The panelists – Richard Wollack, founder and managing principal of Fulton Capital Advisors from the wine industry; Simon Shao, CEO of Green Pasture International, Inc., from forage and grain production; and Hua Liu, CEO of China Fisheries – all saw opportunities for a deepening of the supply chain from America’s fields, oceans and rivers to Chinese plates.
    There are two reasons for this. First, the Chinese middle class is growing and is not only seeking a greater variety of foods, but can afford to buy them. Second, the public views purchases from the United States as having a higher probability of safety than from elsewhere. This raises some questions: Is this illusory and it is simply the imprimatur of “Made in USA” that is valued or are there economics that might drive a mutually beneficial Chinese and American integrated food system? The surprising outcome of this panel was that while the distinguished panelists were focused on the economics, it was that very economics that enhanced the security of the supply chain.
    The first issue discussed by the panel was the business of supplying food to China, not because safety is less important, but because economics drives the equation. As Shao pointed out in his opening remarks, China has 7 percent of the world’s arable land, perhaps less than that if estimates of land not currently suitable for planting are taken into account, but 21 percent of the world’s population. Meanwhile, the United States has 13 percent of the world’s arable land and 5 percent of its population. One does not have to be an economist to know there is an opportunity for profitable exchange on both sides. Moreover as Wollack said, there is a Ricardian comparative advantage in such places as Napa and Sonoma, California, that produces an opportunity for premium wine exports to China. And what about the large population of China? At least some is supporting the processing of seafood caught in U.S. waters, processed in China and shipped back to the United States for sale, a business Hua has been pursuing out of Los Angeles. Thus, the food supply chain is inextricably tied to the increasingly favorable two-way trade between China and the United States.
    #Chine #Etat-Unis #Agriculture


  • Michel Aglietta (Cepii) et la Chine
    Effondrement de la Bourse chinoise : il y a tout lieu de penser que Pékin parviendra à stabiliser la situation
    http://www.easybourse.com/bourse/international/interview/4036/michel-aglietta-cepii.html

    Michel Aglietta*
    Conseiller au Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII) et membre du Conseil d’Analyse Economique auprès du Premier ministre

    Publié le 31 Juillet 2015

    (...)

    Comprenez-vous ce bond spectaculaire de la Bourse chinoise en si peu de temps ?
    Le nouveau gouvernement a manifestement décidé par rapport à l’ancien pouvoir de projeter la Chine comme puissance internationale en élargissant l’utilisation de la devise nationale en dehors des frontières et en libéralisant plus rapidement la finance intérieure. En découle une profonde mutation de l’allocation de l’épargne.

    Que voulez vous dire ?
    Les ménages chinois sont d’importants épargnants. Le placement prioritaire était jusque là l’immobilier, ce qui a eu pour conséquence des hausses violentes des prix dans un premier temps puis une baisse tout aussi considérable par la suite et donc des pertes conséquentes.
    Afin d’atténuer ces perturbations, les autorités ont décidé d’introduire une gamme d’actifs financiers qui permettrait aux ménages de diversifier leurs portefeuilles : des actions, des obligations d’entreprises, des obligations de collectivités municipales…
    Dans cette phase de transition, les ménages chinois n’ont pas encore de repère s’agissant de la constitution d’un portefeuille équilibré. Cette perte d’orientation n’est pas propre à la Chine. Tous les pays qui ont commencé à libéraliser leurs finances, le Royaume-Uni au début des années 70, les Etats-Unis au début des années 80 et même la France sont passés dans un premier temps par une période de déstabilisation.

    L’ouverture de la finance de la Chine a été fortement accélérée. Comment l’expliquez-vous ?
    Manifestement la Chine souhaite introduire sa monnaie dans le panier des monnaies qui définissent le DTS au sein du FMI. Ce souhait s’inscrit dans une démarche plus large qui s’est traduite par la création de nouvelles banques d’investissement, la construction d’ infrastructures lourdes comme les routes de la soie afin de permettre à la Chine de devenir le pôle principal de la région asiatique et d’amoindrir notablement l’influence des Etats-Unis dans cette zone du monde.

    (...)
    Quel regard portez-vous sur le changement de positionnement des autorités chinoises vis-à-vis de la direction qu’ils veulent donner à la Bourse chinoise depuis novembre 2014. Cela a commencé avec des mesures de soutien, notamment par la plateforme de connexion des Bourse de Shanghai et d’Hong Kong. Un resserrement a ensuite été annoncé en juin, puis de nouveau un assouplissement en juillet ?
    Du fait de la transformation structurelle extrêmement profonde qu’elles ont entamé, les autorités sont dans l’incertitude vis-à-vis de la notion de prix d’équilibre des actifs.

    D’aucuns n’hésitent pas à dire que le krach boursier est devenu incontrôlable ?
    Les autorités ont eu probablement tort de trop laisser se développer les prêts sur marges aux ménages désirant investir en bourse par les brokers, eux-mêmes financés par les banques, un peu comme ils se sont trompés sur l’amplitude de leur plan de relance massif déployé en 2008 qui a eu pour effet un accroissement phénoménal de la dette.

    A présent, de grands moyens ont été mis sur la table pour juguler l’hémorragie en Bourse. (...)

    On justifie la dernière rechute de la Bourse par deux principaux arguments : un essoufflement plus prononcé que prévu de la croissance chinoise-certains économistes n’hésitant pas à livrer une estimation de hausse de PIB pour 2015 de 3% à 4%- et la crainte de voir le gouvernement alléger son dispositif de soutien suite à un avertissement lancé par le FMI. Qu’en pensez-vous ?
    Il y a indéniablement des zones d’ombre au sein de l’économie chinoise, en particulier la surcapacité de production des entreprises dans le secteur manufacturier, une problématique d’endettement sous jacente. Pékin s’efforce de résorber le niveau colossal de la dette accumulée tout en évitant une crise qui entrainerait un ralentissement brutal de la croissance.
    Pour autant, en dépit de ces points de vulnérabilité, les grandes organisations internationales restent encore sur une prévision de croissance du PIB pour la Chine d’environ 7% pour cette année. Il n’y a pas de raison de ne pas les croire car les salaires progressent rapidement, les ventes au détail restent robustes, le taux de chômage urbain n’augmente pas et de nombreux indices font état d’un redéploiement de la production de grande ampleur vers la consommation intérieure, les services et le resserrement des échanges entre les régions de l’Ouest en pleine expansion et le reste de l’économie.

    Cela veut dire que la croissance chinoise est moins dépendante des importations qu’elle ne le fut et donc que les indicateurs qui avaient cours dans l’ancien régime de croissance tirée par l’immobilier, l’investissement productif et l’exportation ne sont plus pertinents dans le nouveau.

    Les observateurs extérieurs qui postulent que la croissance de la Chine continue d’être drivée par les mêmes moteurs que ceux du passé font donc une erreur cardinale. De ce fait, le lien entre la Chine et les importations de matières premières n’est plus du tout le même. Il y a une surestimation de la baisse de la production industrielle chinoise en raison de la perte de vue de cette restructuration en cours.

    La Chine a six mois d’acquis de croissance favorable autour de 7%. Il parait déraisonnable de penser que la croissance descendra bien en dessous de 7% à moins d’avoir un second semestre catastrophique, ce qui ne parait pas le plus probable et indiquerait une détérioration de la conjoncture mondiale beaucoup plus large.

    Ce d’autant plus que pour le moment la Bourse n’a pas encore d’impacts importants sur l’économie réelle. L’effet richesse des ménages procuré par un investissement sur le marché actions est tout récent. Le financement des entreprises chinoises se fait pour le moment marginalement par la Bourse et bien davantage par le crédit bancaire.

    Un quantitative easing est, en outre, menée actuellement par la Banque centrale par une réduction du ratio de réserves obligatoires des banques chinoises.

    La crainte de voir Pékin alléger les mesures de soutien avancées pour soutenir la Bourse chinoise vous parait-elle fondée ?
    Il me semble que la priorité du gouvernement reste celle d’éliminer les distorsions découlant de l’ancien régime de croissance en mettant l’accent sur l’innovation, la main d’œuvre qualifiée, la protection de l’environnement. La Chine veut ainsi évoluer d’une position de manufacture du monde à une économie industrielle de pointe. C’est ce qu’indiquent clairement les plans pour 2020 et 2025.
    La Chine a besoin, pour atteindre cette ambition, de modifier sa place dans la division internationale du travail. C’est par rapport à cette optique que devra être apprécié l’alourdissement ou l’allégement de l’interventionnisme de la Chine dans ses finances.

    Que voyez-vous du coté du yuan ?
    Depuis 2013, le yuan s’est renchéri dans le sillage du dollar. Selon le FMI la devise se situerait à un niveau d’équilibre en termes effectifs réels. La Balance courante du pays est en excédent de 2%, contre près de 10% pour un pays comme l’Allemagne.
    A présent, si le dollar venait à s’apprécier bien davantage consécutivement au relèvement des taux directeurs par la Fed, la Chine pourrait vouloir ralentir la hausse de la valeur du yuan, voir même l’abaisser quelque peu. La volonté affichée par la Banque centrale de Chine d’élargir les marges de fluctuation de la devise, et donc de lui donner plus de flexibilité, va dans ce sens pour aider à la mise en place des réformes envisagées pour résoudre les distorsions dans le pays.

    *Co-auteur du livre « La Voie chinoise : Capitalisme et empire »❞


  • Authorities considering end to lending limit for Chinese banks | CER
    http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/node/67709

    Authorities considering end to lending limit for Chinese banks
    Tuesday, August 25, 2015
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    The Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress announced on Monday that it was reviewing a rule requiring banks to lend no more than 75% of total deposits, South China Morning Post reported. The rule was put in place in 1995 to control how much banks lent during a time when the institutions had strong incentives to offer cheap but profitable loans, and in June only four large banks were in excess of the limit, data compiled by the Post showed. China Merchants Bank had the highest ratio at nearly 79%, but most lenders had far lower ratios, implying removal of the rule would have a limited effect on lending in the short ter

    #Chine, # Banques


  • China pension fund allowed to invest in stock market - China.org.cn
    http://www.china.org.cn/business/2015-08/24/content_36392674.htm

    China’s State Council published the final guideline on investment for the country’s massive pension fund on Sunday, effectively opening the gate for its investment into the stock market.

    The final plan, released after considering public opinion, allows the pension fund to be invested in new products, including domestic stock markets, but restricts the maximum proportion of investments in stocks and equities to 30 percent of total net assets.

    The fund will also be used to participate in major projects and purchase shares in state-owned enterprises to gain long-term yields.

    Provincial-level governments determine the capital amount to be invested first and only the institutions authorized by the State Council can operate such capital. All details shall be reported to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance.

    The guideline will be effective since the day it’s published.

    (...)
    The fund for retirees, which began operation in the early 1990s, has aroused concern as its annualized investment yield hovered as low as around 2 percent over the past several years, falling short of the consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation.

    China’s pension fund depreciated by nearly 100 billion yuan in the past 20 years, taking inflation into account, said Zheng Bingwen, an expert from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

    The stock market will help avoid the diminishing value of pension fund and stabilize the country’s capital market, said Li Daxiao, chief economist with Yingda Securities.
    #Chine #Bourse #Fonds_de_pension


  • En finir avec le sino-pessimisme
    Par François Godement

    Editos & Analyses
    http://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/editos-analyses/021270285988-en-finir-avec-le-sino-pessimisme-1146656.php
    http://www.lesechos.fr/medias/2015/08/21/1146656_en-finir-avec-le-sino-pessimisme-web-021271640770.jpg

    Un chiffre est passé totalement inaperçu : la hausse du revenu et de la consommation individuelle, de 10,4 % entre juillet 2014 et juillet 2015. C’est la troisième année que ce chiffre surpasse la hausse du PIB, et il témoigne d’un rééquilibrage de l’économie chinoise. Oui, de janvier à juin 2015, le marché automobile n’atteint « que » 10 millions de véhicules - à peine plus qu’au premier semestre 2014. Mais c’est de loin le premier marché mondial. L’ensemble de la consommation individuelle voit les marques chinoises progresser et les marques étrangères stagner ou reculer - une évolution que laissait présager, entre autres, la campagne contre la corruption. Quant au marché boursier shanghaïen qui s’est « effondré », il est encore à 63 % au-dessus de son niveau d’il y a un an…
    Les effets du ralentissement chinois sur les économies développées sont eux aussi exagérés. Certes, les vendeurs du luxe et du premium ne peuvent plus espérer de croissance à deux chiffres. Pour les autres, la hausse précédente du yuan laisse tout de même des marges. Pour ceux qui font fabriquer en Chine (plus de 60 % des exportations chinoises sont faites par des entreprises à capitaux au moins en partie étrangers), la dévaluation limitée du yuan est une bonne nouvelle.
    Quel paradoxe : des Occidentaux réclamant naguère une libération du change chinois s’affolent quand celui-ci décroche - enfin - du dollar : pour notre part, nous attendons surtout que cette flexibilité soit aussi démontrée à la hausse. Des Européens, naguère assommés par la montée du prix de l’énergie et des matières premières, se disent aujourd’hui atterrés par leur baisse, alors que les prix élevés transféraient la plus-value vers les pays producteurs.

    #Chine #croissance


  • Dépenses militaire record au Japon
    Record defense budget eyed to counter China’s growing naval presence - AJW by The Asahi Shimbun
    http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201508200040
    http://d13uygpm1enfng.cloudfront.net/article-imgs/en/2015/08/20/AJ201508200040/AJ201508200041M.jpg

    ❝The Defense Ministry will request a record 5.091 trillion yen ($41 billion) for fiscal 2016 to counter Chinese maritime advances, sources said.

    Tilt-rotor transport aircraft and amphibious vehicles are on the menu to strengthen surveillance capabilities by the Self-Defense Forces and bolster the defenses of outlying islands.

    This marks the fourth consecutive year of a rise in the request for defense spending. The figure, which represents a 2.2 percent increase from the initial defense budget for fiscal 2015, is the second year in a row that it has exceeded 5 trillion yen.

    On the list is a destroyer equipped with the Aegis system to shoot down ballistic missiles for 167.5 billion yen and three Global Hawk reconnaissance drones for 36.7 billion yen.

    The requested budget also includes the cost of 12 MV-22 Ospreys at 132.1 billion yen and six F-35A stealth fighters at 103.5 billion yen. Both aircraft will be introduced to increase the SDF’s capabilities in defending remote islands.


  • It’s time for India to rethink its nuclear policy | East Asia Forum
    http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2015/08/21/its-time-for-india-to-rethink-its-nuclear-policy-2
    http://www.eastasiaforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/20150817001167158175-minihighres.jpg

    India’s Pakistan dilemma continues, as Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif warned that they reserve the option of using nuclear weapons. The statement was made a week before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in July 2015 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization summit at Ufa, Russia. But the meeting did little to abate either ceasefire violations along the borders or terrorism.

    Pakistani nuclear weapons have over the years provided it with a shield that constrains India from using military means in response to acts of cross-border terrorism. Pakistan’s introduction of battlefield nuclear weapons or Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs) has lowered the threshold for nuclear conflict and has negated India’s conventional weapons superiority.

    Does New Delhi, then, need to review its nuclear doctrine to avoid misunderstanding or miscalculation in an ever-changing global and regional security environment?

    The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) election manifesto for the 2014 general election declared that they would review and, if required, update India’s nuclear policy. Then prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi clarified that as far as he was concerned, he would go with the ‘no first use’ policy as articulated by former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

    India’s own past record in responding to cross-border terrorism is mixed, whether in relation to the Mumbai attacks of 2008 or 1993. This raises questions about whether the political class will have sufficient gumption to ensure retaliation for Pakistan’s nuclear weapons policy.

    The Indian public view their political leadership as weak-kneed and lacking the capability to respond. Any policy, conventional or nuclear, depends on effective political leadership. Given the country’s democratic political system, the idea of revising India’s doctrine — to give the military a role of primacy in making such decisions because of a belief that the political leadership does not have the will to retaliate, could well be dangerous.

    India’s military build-up in the face of threats from both sides has been significant over the last decade or so, with a quantum leap in military technology putting it way ahead of its neighbour Pakistan. Despite this, India has had little success so far in developing a comprehensive yet credible defence posture against the wide spectrum of threats that it faces, both nuclear and conventional.
    #Inde #Pakistan #nucléaire


  • Study claims China emissions much lower than expected - FT.com
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/236fedce-462e-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html?ftcamp=crm/email/2015820/nbe/ChinaBusiness/product#axzz3jLCdSE9j
    http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/821eeec8-212c-4973-b63d-0f2fbe4b4829.img

    “A lot of people feel surprised because we normally don’t expect that China’s emissions are underestimated,” said Dabo Guan, one of the lead authors of the study from the School of International Development at the University of East Anglia.
    At issue is the method of calculation used to estimate Chinese emissions. Observers calculate emissions based on estimates of units of energy consumed, a measure that in turn relies on a conversion factor for converting the physical coal used into standard coal units.
    The study built upon a national survey of about 5,000 coal mines covering about 85 per cent of Chinese coal production to conclude that coal quality was generally poorer than that used in the west. Poor-quality coal emits more air pollutants per unit of energy but up to 50 per cent less carbon dioxide per tonne.

    That means the formula used to convert units of physical coal to units of standard coal, and therefore emissions, is distorted for China, resulting in an overestimation of emissions. That is the case even when assuming the country consumes 10 per cent more coal than reflected in official statistics, the researchers argue.
    China’s official statistics often fail to capture smaller or private coal mines, industrial facilities and even relatively large power plants and coal-to-chemicals refineries. That was particularly true when the economy was booming, but now slowing growth and tighter government policies are driving many of those plants out of business.

    #Chine #CO2


  • China Focus: Doubts cast over legitimacy of Tianjin blast warehouse - Xinhua | English.news.cn
    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-08/19/c_134533801.htm

    These connections are thought to have facilitated their business by helping them obtain various fire safety, land, environmental and safety certifications.

    “My guanxi (translated as connections) is in police and fire. When we needed a fire inspection, I went to meet with officials at the Tianjin port fire squad. I gave them the files and soon they gave me the appraisal,” said Dong.

    Dong did not specify whether there was a bribe or official misconduct.

    Zhu Liming, deputy head of the planning and land management bureau at Binhai New Area, which granted the land and construction license for the warehouses, said his bureau “referred to the fire safety documents, which had given the green light in terms of whether the warehouse was a safe distance from the residential area”.

    China stipulates that dangerous warehouses must be 1,000 meters from major transport hubs and public buildings, but the warehouse was only 560 meters away from the Vanke residential community and 630 meters from a rail station.

    #Chine,#Tianjin,#Corruption


  • La Bulle va éclater
    L’un des plus gros fonds au monde connaît ses premières pertes en trois ans, Infos marchés - Les Echos Bourse
    http://bourse.lesechos.fr/infos-conseils-boursiers/actus-des-marches/infos-marches/l-un-des-plus-gros-fonds-souverain-au-monde-connait-ses-premieres-pe
    http://bourse.lesechos.fr/medias/2015/08/19/1074953_1439982329_1021274-1418992996-1021273-1418992944-kr-norvege.jpg

    Le fonds de pension public norvégien dans lequel le pays place une partie de ses importants revenus pétroliers et gaziers a perdu 73 milliards de couronnes (8,8 milliards de dollars) au cours de deuxième trimestre, soit une baisse de 0,9% en données séquentielles, indique ce matin la Banque centrale de Norvège, chargée de sa gestion. Il s’agit de sa première perte en trois ans. Au cours du deuxième trimestre 2012, le fonds, dont les actifs sous gestion s’élèvent à 6.897 milliards de couronnes (870 milliards de dollars) à fin juin 2015, avait en effet consigné un rendement négatif de 2,18%.


  • Will the TPP endgame get tangled in old spaghetti? | East Asia Forum
    http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2015/08/18/will-the-tpp-endgame-get-tangled-in-old-spaghetti
    http://www.eastasiaforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/20150727001160023655-minihighres.jpg

    PTA proponents point to the complementarily of most favoured nation (MFN) and PTA tariff cutting during this recent period of profusion of PTAs as evidence of their ‘building blocks’ argument. Multilateralists point to the welfare losses that accrue from trade diversion, the embedded trade discrimination against third parties that is woven into such agreements, as well as the damage inflicted over time to the multilateral system by the incremental downgrading of the MFN principle.

    Both parties concede that large regional PTAs, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement could serve as ‘building blocks’ so long as they broad-based, add new members, and impose liberalising disciplines on the multiple systems of rules of origin and related measures that discriminate between insiders and outsiders.

    Judging by the setback at the recent TPP ministerial in Maui in late July, the US-led negotiation appears to be failing this test. Worse, the trade discrimination embedded within the existing TPP membership as a result of prior PTAs — the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) foremost — appears to ironically be the biggest ‘stumbling block’ to concluding the TPP negotiations.

    Trade economists have long fretted about the lack of an explicit methodology and therefore a means of enforcement in the GATT/WTO rules, which are meant to discipline instances of discrimination suffered by third parties due to PTAs. As a result, such agreements regularly violate, by way of their design of rules of origin and reallocation of tariff rate quotas (TRQs), the WTO’s Article XXIV injunction that their effects be no higher or more restrictive against third parties than the prevailing ‘duties and other regulations of commerce existing … prior to the formation of the free trade area’.

    #TPP #Inde



  • Wages and employment | China Labour Bulletin
    http://www.clb.org.hk/en/content/wages-and-employment
    http://www.clb.org.hk/en/sites/default/themes/clb/images/fb-logo.jpg

    Wage levels in China have increased steadily over the last decade; driven by rapid economic growth and declining population growth. Fewer young people are entering the workforce and those that do have higher expectations. Workers have become better organized and employers in many sectors have been forced to pay higher wages in order to recruit and retain staff.

    Source. National Bureau of Statistics.

    There has been near double digit growth in the national average annual wage for urban employees since 2004, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, with the average wage reaching 56,339 yuan in 2014 (around US$9,000). See chart above. By 2012, many commentators had already declared the end of cheap labour in China. However, these headlines and the official statistics mask huge disparities between different industries, geographic regions, urban and rural areas, as well as between senior managers and ordinary workers. The minimum wage in China has never been a living wage, and employees on the minimum wage usually have to rely on excessive overtime and production bonuses just to get by. Moreover, as economic growth has slowed in recent years, more and more businesses are defaulting on wage payments in a blatant violation of the Labour Law.

    #Chine, #Salaire_minimum #violations-des-lois


  • China’s new foreign exchange regime brings volatility and value to its financial system | CER
    http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/node/67678
    (...)

    The size of the yuan’s initial drop this week seems to have overshadowed its cause, perhaps understandably: The currency’s trading-band fall of nearly 2% against the US dollar on Tuesday hit many unsuspecting investors, analysts and journalists square on the jaw like a hard left hook.

    But heading into the third day of the new and largely unproven currency regime that made the drop possible, it is worth scrutinizing what exactly the new scheme entails and why the old one was dropped, as well as the implications for systemic risk in China as it embarks on what could prove to be a significant step in a long-promised campaign of financial reform. 

    On the mainland and increasingly abroad, everything from gold to property to equities to cabbage is bought with the yuan. Put simply, there is no nexus so central to China as its currency. And now the central bank has cranked the coin of the realm’s volatility up to unprecedented levels.

    Fresh ink, new rules

    Thus far, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has played by the new foreign exchange rules it laid out Tuesday morning: Previously the central bank would, without regard for market sentiment, set a midpoint for the yuan’s dollar exchange rate from which the currency could float up or down by a maximum of 2%. The new mechanism has the PBOC still setting the midpoint, but is supposedly based on the market movements of the previous day.

    That has remained technically true, though on late Wednesday afternoon news broke that the PBOC had ordered state-owned banks to sell dollars in the last 15 minutes of trading. Thus, after nearing its bottom limit of 2% devaluation, the yuan’s dollar value swooped back up by about 1% to set a less drastic midpoint for the start of Thursday trading.

    Chen Long, China economist at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, said he suspected this policy combination could continue: The bank can allow the yuan’s fixing price to follow from the spot market closing price, protecting its credibility; but it can also intervene in the spot market as needed to prevent the currency from falling by 2% every day.

    “Therefore the PBOC avoids a massive depreciation that can potentially harm financial stability, and soon we will see real money starting to buy RMB again,” Chen said. 

    Financial fallout 

    The new foreign exchange regime - assuming it holds through the rest of this week - could be the most substantial move so far under President Xi Jinping’s administration to follow through on promises to give the market a greater role in China’s economy. Just not too great.

    “It appears that in the first two days of this [scheme] that what they’re trying to do is let the market play a greater role in determining the exchange rate, but not let it play too big a role,” said Christopher Balding, associate professor at the HSBC School of Business at Peking University.

    Balding suggested the downward pressure on the yuan’s value was largely a happy coincidence, and was skeptical that any resulting impact on China’s exports could be extricated from regular business cycle changes. 

    Speaking shortly before the PBOC intervened in the spot market, he said the bank would likely move to halt downward movement it considered too sudden. “My sense is they’re content to let the RMB glide down a little bit,” Balding said. If that means increased capital outflows from China’s financial sector, so be it. Balding also suggested keeping an eye trained on interest rates: “If maintaining the [exchange rate] peg is less of an issue, that does give the PBOC the freedom to lower interest rates and potentially help out Chinese businesses.”

    #Chine, #Yuan,#réforme_financière


  • The People’s Bank of China is magnificently right | Asia Times
    http://atimes.com/2015/08/the-peoples-bank-of-china-is-magnificently-right
    http://atimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/dxyoil.png

    The People’s Bank of China is magnificently right

    BY ASIA UNHEDGED on AUGUST 12, 2015 in ASIA UNHEDGED, CHINA
    After Franklin Roosevelt devalued the dollar against gold in the midst of a global deflationary spiral, the economist John Maynard Keynes declared in the Daily Mail, “President Roosevelt is Magnificently Right.” So is the People’s Bank of China. The soaring US dollar rose 25% on a trade-weighted basis between June 2014 and March 2015, for two reasons: The US Federal Reserve declared its intention to raise interest rates while the economy weakened, and China’s central bank allowed the RMB to rise in lockstep with the dollar. After the RMB devaluation, the trade-weighted US dollar index DXY fell from a high of 98.3 on August 5 to 96.2 as of 10:00 a.m. EST Wednesday. Gold has risen from $1,085 to $1,117. Oil is down slightly, but that’s probably more supply-related than currency-driven. Inflation expectations as registered by the bond market (“breakeven inflation”) are unchanged at the 5-year level. What’s bad about that? The flight to safety in equity and bond markets seems wrong-headed.

    We would have preferred, to be sure, a clear statement from the PBoC announcing a general adjustment of monetary policy, including a reduction of interest rates. With China’s PPI at -5.4% YOY and CPI at +1.6%, most Chinese businesses and consumers are paying much higher real rates than their Western or Japanese counterparts. The PBoC’s penchant for doing things piecemeal appears to have confused the market. That doesn’t change the fact that it did the right thing.

    Deflation, by definition, is an increase in the value of a currency against goods (and, relatively speaking, other currencies). During the year to date, the rise and fall in the oil price has tracked (inversely) the rise and fall of the trade-weighted dollar.

    #CHine #YUan


  • Yuan, Bourse...La Chine découvre la volatilité des marchés
    China’s new foreign exchange regime brings volatility and value to its financial system | CER
    http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/chinas-new-forex-regime-brings-volatility-value-its-financial-s

    On the mainland and increasingly abroad, everything from gold to property to equities to cabbage is bought with the yuan. Put simply, there is no nexus so central to China as its currency. And now the central bank has cranked the coin of the realm’s volatility up to unprecedented levels.

    Fresh ink, new rules

    Thus far, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has played by the new foreign exchange rules it laid out Tuesday morning: Previously the central bank would, without regard for market sentiment, set a midpoint for the yuan’s dollar exchange rate from which the currency could float up or down by a maximum of 2%. The new mechanism has the PBOC still setting the midpoint, but is supposedly based on the market movements of the previous day.

    That has remained technically true, though on late Wednesday afternoon news broke that the PBOC had ordered state-owned banks to sell dollars in the last 15 minutes of trading. Thus, after nearing its bottom limit of 2% devaluation, the yuan’s dollar value swooped back up by about 1% to set a less drastic midpoint for the start of Thursday trading.

    Chen Long, China economist at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, said he suspected this policy combination could continue: The bank can allow the yuan’s fixing price to follow from the spot market closing price, protecting its credibility; but it can also intervene in the spot market as needed to prevent the currency from falling by 2% every day.

    “Therefore the PBOC avoids a massive depreciation that can potentially harm financial stability, and soon we will see real money starting to buy RMB again,” Chen said. 

    Financial fallout 

    The new foreign exchange regime - assuming it holds through the rest of this week - could be the most substantial move so far under President Xi Jinping’s administration to follow through on promises to give the market a greater role in China’s economy. Just not too great.

    “It appears that in the first two days of this [scheme] that what they’re trying to do is let the market play a greater role in determining the exchange rate, but not let it play too big a role,” said Christopher Balding, associate professor at the HSBC School of Business at Peking University.

    Balding suggested the downward pressure on the yuan’s value was largely a happy coincidence, and was skeptical that any resulting impact on China’s exports could be extricated from regular business cycle changes. 

    Speaking shortly before the PBOC intervened in the spot market, he said the bank would likely move to halt downward movement it considered too sudden. “My sense is they’re content to let the RMB glide down a little bit,” Balding said. If that means increased capital outflows from China’s financial sector, so be it. Balding also suggested keeping an eye trained on interest rates: “If maintaining the [exchange rate] peg is less of an issue, that does give the PBOC the freedom to lower interest rates and potentially help out Chinese businesses.”

    There could be enormous strain on public and private actors with dollar-denominated debt such as property developers and some local governments, but Balding said that this was unlikely to influence the central bank’s decision making, due to its relatively small portion of total debt.

    Straightening priorities

    That is not to say China’s financial system is heading into the new exchange regime risk-free. While Beijing’s crackdown on short-selling and other bullish activity in the mainland stock market has ratcheted down volatility in recent weeks, other, larger systemic issues have remained largely unaddressed.

    #Chine #Yuan