Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era - The Lancet Global Health
Evidence before this study
Many mathematical models have been developed to project the epidemiological and demographic effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on HIV epidemics and assess different policy options for the use of ART across sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere. However, testing of these predictions against external data had not been possible. With new data from a nationally representative household survey in South Africa, we have, for the first time, compared existing model projections with data about HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and ART coverage.
Implications of all the available evidence
Our results suggest that existing projections for reductions in HIV incidence after the scale-up of ART might have been overly optimistic. Resources needed for future HIV treatment and prevention are probably greater than previously forecast.
More toilets will save South Africa money - Gregg S. Gonsalves, Edward H. Kaplan, A. David Paltiel | Groundup
The most interesting part of our analysis is what happens when you look at costs to society. Installing and maintaining toilets is relatively inexpensive when compared to the costs of sexual violence. (...) you may be paying more for toilets, but society is saving far more from reducing the impact of sexual assault in communities. In economic terms, the costs associated with the status quo and the current number of toilets we estimate exist in the township could even be maintained by quadrupling the number of toilets available to residents with a far greater reduction in the number of rapes per year.